DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W COAST THIS MORNING WILL DIG
INTO THE GREAT BASIN/LWR CO RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /AOB -20C/ OBSERVED IN THE 12Z KOAK RAOB WILL FAVOR
STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SRN
SIERRAS INTO PORTIONS OF NV AND UT. HOWEVER...A COOL/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE
CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED.

..GARNER/HART.. 02/11/2012

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

VALID 111700Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN FL PENINSULA AND CNTRL/ERN FL
PANHANDLE...COASTAL PLAIN OF SRN SC AND SERN GA...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES REQUIRED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/11/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0344 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL ELONGATE
NNW-SSE TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE S OF THE VORTEX MOVES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CONUS. MEANWHILE...A SPRAWLING SFC ANTICYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS...WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SERN
CONUS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG WNWLY TO NNWLY WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN CONUS. ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
STATES WILL BEGIN TRANSLATING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...WHILE AN UPSTREAM...CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH ALSO SHIFTS
EWD. A BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL BRUSH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN FL PENINSULA AND CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...COASTAL PLAIN OF
SRN SC AND SERN GA...
A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED UPON COORDINATION WITH THE
CHARLESTON SC...JACKSONVILLE FL...AND TALLAHASSEE FL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

WINDS: ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND CNTRL/ERN FL PANHANDLE...THE
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS --
I.E. NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. FARTHER
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SERN GA AND SRN SC...A ZONE OF
RELATIVELY STRONGER 925-MB FLOW BENEATH A MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL
ALSO SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG SFC WINDS -- I.E. WNWLY WINDS OF
20-23 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH.

TEMPERATURES: DESPITE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...INSOLATION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA PER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

RH VALUES: ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND CNTRL/ERN FL
PANHANDLE...MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
RH VALUES TO FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S. FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SRN SC AND SERN GA...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
25-30 PERCENT. THESE RELATIVELY LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE DUE TO THE
INFLUX OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OWING TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FUELS/PRECIPITATION: RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PER RADAR-DERIVED
ESTIMATES...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS. SOME
AREAS AROUND THE FL BIG BEND NEWD TOWARD SERN GA RECEIVED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THIS PRECIP MAY TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO SOME
DEGREE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONGOING
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AND ANTICIPATED DRYING OF
FUELS OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS...FUELS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT CRITICAL DESIGNATION UPON
COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

...E-CNTRL/SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...PARTS OF
GA/SC...
TO THE W/NW/N OF THE CRITICAL AREA /AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS
SUBSECTION/ ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
WNWLY TO NNWLY WINDS OF 15-23 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH AFFECT
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 50 DEGREES ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF
BASIS...THUS MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND PRECLUDING
UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION. AND...WITH THESE COOL TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE...RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN GA INTO
SC...WHERE ENHANCED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING
INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE ABSENCE OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES PREVENTS UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS
TIME.

...AZ...SRN NV...SERN CA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SLY TO SSWLY SFC
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL/WRN
AZ...SRN NV...AND SERN CA. COMBINING WITH THESE WINDS...MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...THUS REMAINING
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS OR
WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. WHILE PARTS OF SERN AZ MAY EXPERIENCE
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...THESE AREAS WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ATTM. ACCORDINGLY...OVERLAP
OF CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED ATTM.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WHILE AMPLIFYING TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP POLAR VORTEX LOCATED
JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...A STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND
ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS E OF THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND EWD/SEWD. STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND DIVERGENT SFC
FLOW ACCOMPANYING THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. FARTHER
WEST...A CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES. DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/11/2012